Season Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

Last year, the Pirates went 57-105

Last year the Pirates were the worst team in Major League Baseball.  They scored the fewest runs in the National League, gave up the most runs and had the worst defense.  They had one of the worst run margins in the history of baseball indicating they not only lost, but were blown out in many of the 105 defeats they suffered.  Usually a fan base with a team that pathetic would be outraged; yet last season was nothing new for Pirates fans.  The Pirates, as we all know, have had losing records in 18 consecutive years, the worst of any franchise in any sport.  With all of the losing, pessimism would be expected (and it is everywhere).  However, there is a sense of optimism that the franchise is heading in the right direction.  The Pirates called up Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker who all performed well as rookies.  The Pirates landed Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie, two powerful arms, in the amateur draft while also signing Mexican phenom Luis Heredia.

Then, in the off-season, the Pirates signed Clint Hurdle to be their new manager.  Hurdle has instilled confidence and accountability in his young squad; something John Russell, his predecessor, failed to do on every level.  How much will Clint Hurdle's influence translate into wins for this young squad?  It is impossible to say.  Regardless, there will be a new attitude in town and this team will be better than last year's squad (not that they could be worse).

Hitting

Let's compare the Opening Day roster from 2010 to that of 2011:

2010

Aki Iwamura 2B
Andrew McCutchen CF
Garret Jones RF
Ryan Doumit C
Lastings Milledge LF
Jeff Clement 1B
Andy Laroche 3B
Duke P
Cedeno SS

2011

Jose Tabata LF
Neil Walker 2B
Andrew McCutchen CF
Lyle Overbay 1B
Pedro Alvarez 3B
Ryan Doumit C
Garret Jones RF
Ronnie Cedeno SS
Kevin Correia P

Top to bottom, tomorrow's lineup is full of young, talented players.  Tabata has the speed and on-base capabilities to steal 30+ bases this year. Andrew McCutchen is starting to enter his prime years and could be a 20-40 player (20 home runs 40 stolen bases). Neil Walker may not hit .296 like he did last year, but he also wont hit .182 like Aki Iwamura did last year.  Pedro Alvarez has significantly more power than Andy Laroche.  Add a pure hitter like Lyle Overbay over a busted first round pick like Clement, and it's safe to say the Pirates will produce more runs this year.  Also, the addition of Matt Diaz, a specialist at hitting left handed pitching, is the perfect contrast to Garret Jones, a left handed bat who crushes right handed pitchers and struggles against lefties.  An improvement on the offensive side will be better.  This team may not win a NL Pennant like owner Bob Nutting wants, but they will certainly be more exciting.



 Pitching

The Pirates had the worst pitching staff in the league last year.  Their team ERA was a league worst 5.00 with Paul Maholm leading the team in wins (9).  That's pathetic.  Zack Duke and Charlie Morton were absolutely horrific.  Duke had a 5.72 ERA while Charlie Morton went 2-11 with a 7.57 ERA.  Since then, Duke has been traded to Arizona and Charlie Morton has been phenomenal this Spring, attributed to his change in delivery (he's dropped down to a three-quarters arm slot) and the rejuvenation of his sinker.  Morton's success would be a huge lift to an otherwise, terrible starting rotation.  The offense will put runs on the board for the Buccos, the pitching will erase leads; quickly.  


Prospects

Last year the Pirates called up 3 keys players who immediately contributed to their lineup.  This year, two pitching prospects should make their way up by June.  Rudy Owens, a former Draft and Follow pick in 2006, led the Eastern League (AA) in ERA (2.46) and will start this year in Indianapolis (AAA).  The young lefty not only shows solid velocity (92-94) but excellent control and a good breaking ball.  Bryan Morris, the last Pirate player remaining from the Jason Bay deal, throws in the low-mid 90's with an average slider and good changeup.  His health issues have forced the Pirates to send him to the bullpen, for now.  September call-ups could include prospects Tony Sanchez, Alex Presley, Andrew Lambo and Starling Marte.  
   
Predictions

• The Pirates will have a 19th consecutive losing season.  But improvement will be noticeable.
• Charlie Morton will have a solid year (10-11 sub-4.00 ERA 160 strikeouts)
• Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit will be gone by the end of July.  Maholm will be traded, Ryan Doumit will either be released or traded.
• Pedro Alvarez will reach 30 home runs.
• The Pirates will finish above the Astros for 5th in the NL Central.
• Rice University star Anthony Rendon will be the first overall pick by the Pirates in the 2011 Amateur Draft.
• The final record will be 72-90.

And Now There Are Two

Since the day after the 2010 MLB Draft last June, the baseball world had unanimously pinned Anthony Rendon as the future first overall pick.  When the college baseball season opened last month, Rendon was, again, the consensus number 1 who could only be knocked down if he suffered another major injury.  Since then, Rendon has hit well, batting .341/.517/.565.  And yet, there has been something off about Rendon's season.  A season which has been sprinkled with bad luck.  Rendon opened the season as a DH and has only started playing third in the past two weeks due to a strained shoulder; certainly nothing major to be worried about but it did limit his ability to show off his gold glove caliber talent on the hot corner.  Compound his minor injury with the major injury to star outfielder Jeremy Rathjen and Rendon's protection in the lineup has been lost, leaving him vulnerable to fewer hittable pitches.  Since Rathjen's injury, Rendon has walked 11 times in 6 games.  Also, Rendon has only registered 4 home runs in 85 at-bats; well off his pace from the 26 he hit last year.

Cole Emerging

Gerrit Cole was mentioned as part of the "Big 3" in the draft, accompanying Anthony Rendon and Matt Purke.  At the start of the season, he was seen less as a first overall pick and more as a player battling Matt Purke for the pick following Rendon.  Now, however, he is creating controversy and drama over the top spot in the draft.  To say Cole, a junior at UCLA, has dominated this year would be an understatement.  His 1-2 record is deceiving given that his offense gave him zero (0) run support in 18 straight innings.  In 32.1 innings, Cole has struck out 40 batters, allowed 15 hits and yielded only 5 earned runs.  Per the scouting report on the Pirates Prospects Cole Tracker, Cole's single flaw was his control.  However, given his 6.0 K/BB ratio this year, it appears Gerrit's maturation has lifted that weakness.  





Who to Choose?


So who do the Pirates take?  Barring injury, it really seems to be a can't-lose situation for a franchise who gained this very fortunate decision by running a can't-win team the year before.  Who would you choose?  Team Rendon or Team Cole?

Reasons to Select Gerrit Cole


The old adage, "Pitching/defense wins championships" still lives on as we saw last year in the World Series.  Imagine a rotation whose first 3 pitchers were Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon and Luis Heredia.  Assuming they all reach their potential (which is a huge assumption in baseball) this could be the front line of the best rotation in baseball by 2014-2015.  In his most recent chat transcript Wednesday, Jim Callis had this to say about Cole in comparison to Taillon:

"It's not like Rendon won't be able to play third base—a very good third base—in the future, so that's not really a factor. Cole has enhanced his chances of going 1-1 by showing great stuff every time out this spring. He and Taillon have comparable fastballs and breaking balls, but Cole's changeup is significantly better."

Alvarez could use a friend to give him RBI's

 Reasons to Take Anthony Rendon


Rendon adds a pure number 3 hitter at a prime position.  He projects to be a 25-30 home run hitter while hitting over .300.  As mentioned before, he has a plus glove, making him a potential gold glove winner each year.  He would move Pedro Alvarez, a below average fielder, to first base and let him focus on hitting.  The top 5 players in the lineup could include Tabata, McCutchen, Walker, Rendon, Alvarez (in no particular order) by as early as June 2012.  You should also consider that the Pirates system lacks significant power and projectable hitters on the corner infield positions.  In Baseball America's Prospect Handbook, they listed the Top 30 prospects in the Pirates' system and, of the 30 prospects mentioned, Matt Hague (29) is the only corner infielder listed.  Meanwhile, over half of the list is made up of pitching prospects (16).  And, although you can never have too many pitchers, it is apparent the Pirates need more talent in their lineup; talent Rendon can instantly inject.  


 Who would I choose?  No idea.  Honestly, it's a coin flip.  As former Pirates post-game host, Rocco DeMaro told me today, it's a good year to have the second pick.  One thing is for sure, whoever they take will instantly be a top 5 prospect in the system. 

And for those of you doubting the Pirates will spend the money on either player:

8:45

     

Ian Snell Retires; Trades of Bucco Past

During the Pirates 18 season losing streak, the Pirates have been criticized for poor draft choices, frugal financial decisions, and horrible trades or "salary dumps".  While that has been true for the first decade, or so, making that determination to the Pirates' trade moves in the last few years is incorrect.  I hear it all the time: "the Pirates are bad because they trade away all their good players for bums."  I challenge any Pirate fan to give me five players the Pirates have traded that went on to have excellent careers since 2007.  Heck, I'll throw in the last 10 years; 2001.  

This whole topic was brought up to those that turned their nose up to the trade featuring Jack Wilson and Ian Snell to Seattle for Jeff Clement, Nathan Adcock, Aaron Pribanic and Brett Lorin.  I understand the negative reaction to trading Wilson because he was a fan favorite.  However, blaming the losing seasons on trading both he and Ian Snell away is a little ridiculous.  As if we did not already know, Ian Snell's retirement earlier today proves he did not have as much upside as some may of thought.  Lets look at the few All-Star players the Pirates have actually dealt.  And no, making the All-Star team is not the prerequisite to this list.  Wilson and Sanchez would have never been All-Stars had the rules left out the importance of all teams being represented.




I'll start with the most obvious answers:




Aramis Ramirez

Oh hell yes this was a bad deal.  An obvious salary dump in every way possible.  I attribute this trade, alone, which has caused Pirates fans to lose hope in seeing a winner before they die.  Ramirez and Kenny Lofton were packaged in a deal for Jose Hernandez, Matt Bruback and Bobby Hill.  Free-swinging Jose Hernandez hit .223/.282/.326 while striking out 56 times in 213 plate appearances.  Matt Bruback never made it out of AAA while Bobby Hill was a utility player who fizzled after 2 full seasons.  Meanwhile, Ramirez's career numbers are.282/.340/.499 with 289 homeruns and 1029 RBI's.  Not to mention 2 All-Star appearances.


Jason Schmidt

 Jason Schmidt, acquired in 1996 in a deal that sent Denny Neagle to the Braves, was a solid pitcher for the Pirates from 1996-2001.  His ERA was consistently just a hair over 4.00 (other than his rough year in 2000) but he never became the explosive pitcher everyone remembers him by until he went to San Fransisco.  In 2003 and 2004 he finished top 5 in the Cy Young voting, and he was the starter for Game 1 of the 2002 World Series.  In 2001, he was traded by the Pirates for John Vander Wal, Armando Rios, and Ryan Vogelsong; all three were absolutely awful.  Worse yet, Vogelsong needed Tommy John Surgery after just two appearances after the trade and Armando Rios tore his ACL.


Other than that, what trades in the last 10 years have been truly detrimental to the organization?  What about the last 3 years?  Many point to the Freddy Sanchez trade that brought in Tim Alderson as a major error in Pirates management.  However, many forget Alderson was the 7th best prospect in the Pirates system when he was acquired.  He was a 20 year old kid, dominating AA throwing consistently in the low to mid 90's.  Sanchez went on to win a World Series with the Giants, but his production was hardly a major factor in their success.  Don't get me wrong, I loved Sanchez when he was here, but I think it is ludicrous for a small market team to pay 6.25 million dollars for a singles hitter with poor defensive skills.  And, can you really get down on his replacement? Neil Walker his .296/.349/.462 as a rookie last year.


What about the other trades?  Nate McLouth?  Let me ask you something.  What do Nate McLouth, Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke all have in common?  They all played in the minors last year.  Difference is, Locke is still 23 years old and could be a solid piece to the backside of the rotation in the near future.  


If we want to criticize the Pirates, we can criticize them for bad moves in the draft and  free agency.  We can even criticize their trade moves in the early 2000's as a reason for their losing streak.  It takes talent to attract talent.  Hanley Ramirez was traded to the Marlins for Josh Beckett.  The Pirates never had a player of that caliber and thus, were never able to get a return.  The only exception is Littlefield's refusal to trade Kip Wells for Ryan Howard.  I think we can all agree Littlefield decimated this club when he left.  However, the recent moves by Huntington have been warranted.  The purpose was to cut dead-weight salary and restock the minor league system.  As I stated in my post a few weeks ago, this current regime cares about winning.  They aren't going to waste tons of money on free agents and they aren't going to draft based on signability.  In due time, we should see the results. 

Bucco Notes

Hurdle Still Tinkering with Lineup

In an effort to be more productive on offense, Clint Hurdle has been mixing up the lineup on a daily basis since the start of Spring Training; specifically hitters 1-4.  Although star centerfielder Andrew McCutchen is the fastest player on the team (and maybe the entire league), Hurdle may use him in the three spot considering his projection to hit for more power as well as Jose Tabata's ability to get on base.  If I had to guess, I would project the line up to go Tabata, Walker, McCutchen and Alvarez.  At this point, it is impossible to tell.  Today, against the Red Sox, McCutchen sat out while Tabata moved to center and batted leadoff. Yesterday had a different look as players were engaged in split-squad games between the Phillies and Blue Jays.

What Wrist Injury?

After coming out early on Friday with a supposed wrist injury, Andrew McCutchen returned to the lineup Saturday to go 2-3 with a double and a homerun.  The Pirates, however, lost both games yesterday in split-squad play.  In 11 games this Spring, McCutchen is batting .321 with 2 homeruns, 6 RBI's and a .424 OBP.  He appears to be ready for April. 



Nothing oK with Offense

Against the Phillies yesterday, the Pirates struck out 11 times while against the Blue Jays, they struck out 7 times.  So far, the Pirates lead the Majors in strike outs with 138.  Their fielding percentage, however, is 7th in the league, a stat which may have to do with Manager Clint Hurdle's attention to detail and fundamentals.  Last year the Pirates were tied at the bottom of the league with the Nationals in errors with 127.

How Far Can They Go?

At the start of the 2011 year, the Penguins were tied for first in the NHL in points with Detroit (53).  Sidney Crosby had 65 points and was on pace for 130 on the season.  Then, the hit.  Crosby blindsided by David Steckel of the Washington Capitals in the Winter Classic.  When we saw him tumble to the ice, there was cause for concern, however, seeing his return gave us a sense of relief.  Little did we know how mismanaged Crosby's injury actually was.  Since then, Crosby has sat out for over 3 months with no return in the near future.

Ray Shero did his best to make big moves without auctioning off the future.  In trading Goligoski, Shero brought in James Neal and Matt Niskanen.  With a conditional 7th round pick, he brought in Alexei Kovalev, a Pittsburgh legend of the last 90's Penguins teams.  All three players have been solid acquisitions.  James Neal, although only scoring 1 goal and 1 assist in 8 games for the Penguins, has been everything the Penguins could ask for.  His combined speed, size and skill fits Dan Bylsma's system perfectly.  He is a nightmare on the forecheck for other teams and his quick snapshots can sneak up on an opposing goaltender.  Matt Niskanen has been a quiet accomplishment on the blue line while Alex Kovalev is still showing the vision, patience and hands to be an effective player.

But how far will the Penguins' efforts take them?  Is it even possible for them to make a deep run into the playoffs without Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin?  Actually it is, depending on who they play.  I believe the Penguins can make it to an Eastern Conference Final or even a Stanley Cup if they play against the right teams.

As it stands, the Penguins would host the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round.  As good as Tampa has been this year, they've really started to fall as of late.  Not only did they lose the lead in the division because of the Capitals' hot streak, but also because the Lightning have gotten a little soft on defense.  Also, playoff experience is HUGE and their young star, Steven Stamkos, has never played in the playoffs along with previous first round pick Victor Hedman.  Not to mention, their goaltending is a mess. Assume the Penguins beat the Lightning, they would have to play Washington which is possible if the Canadiens knock off the Boston Bruins.  Much like the Lightning, the Capitals are a mess at goaltender as well.  Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth have split most of the games this year and while both have been rather effective, can you really trust either one to carry you through ONE playoff series?  I certainly do not.

This, of course, is all speculation and probably optimism at its finest.  But if last year's playoffs taught us anything, it was that anything is possible.  Last year saw a 7 seeded Philadelphia team knock off an 8 seeded Montreal to win the Eastern Conference.  Can the Penguins pull off a similar feat? That answer hinges on Marc-Andre Fleury.  

He Cares About Winning: A Defense of Bob Nutting

After, quite possibly, the worst season (in a string of 18 losing seasons in a row) in franchise history which included a last place offense, defense and pitching staff that collected 57 wins in 162 chances, it appears Pirates fans are fed up with owner Bob Nutting.  On the outskirts, it is easy to see why.  Since becoming the owner in 2007, the Pirates have amassed a 254-393 record.  Couple that with the fact the Pirates will most likely finish under .500 again this year and it becomes all too apparent Nutting has not worked at making this a competitive team.  "Spend more money!" A cry heard all throughout Pittsburgh significantly louder than "Let's Go Buccs."  However, the flaw instilled in this chant is that the Pirates ARE spending more money.  According to Baseball America, in 2010 the Pirates spent the 4th most money on International Signings using an estimated 5 million dollars.  Over half of that bonus (2.6 mil) went to Mexican pitching phenom Luis Heredia; a signing bonus that ranks 5th all-time for international players.  Heredia, 16, was sought out by nearly every team in the league as a prospect and potential top rotation starter.  Another 185k brought in Jonathan Herrand, an 18 year old who was rumored to have made a jump from 88-92 mph to 97-98 mph, although his command issues need significant fixing before he can move to the next level. 

How, you may ask, did the Pirates attract this kind of talent to sign players away from successful teams?  Roberto Clemente, for one, is still an influence to the Latin America baseball community, however, it may also have to do with the 5 million dollar facility the Pirates opened back in May of 2009 as reported by the Trib here.  The facility opened interest in the international market that was sorely missed in the Pittsburgh organization over the last 20 years.  This same facility, helped Pittsburgh reach the final cut for Miguel Sano, a player who projects to be "Albert Pujols in Hanley Ramirez's body" according to a source close to the Pirates.  Unfortunately Sano ended up choosing Minnesota over Pittsburgh, in the end.  However, had the Pirates not invested money into building a new facility, they would have never had the opportunity to seriously pursue him.  Bob Nutting knew the team needed to be more competitive internationally if they wanted to build a team from the ground up.  His 5 million dollar facility, coupled with the 5 million he dropped last year on international signings alone, should indicate he is doing more with the revenue sharing than simply "pocketing the money." 

First two Pirate picks Stetson Allie (L) and Jameson Taillon (R)

Bob is also investing his money on the Amateur Draft.  Over the last three seasons, the Pirates have spent more money than any team in the draft with $30.7 million. Last year the Pirates selected Jameson Taillon with their second overall pick and paid him $6.5 million (2.5 million over the amount slotted by Major League Baseball).  In total, the Pirates ranked 5th in signing over the slotted amount in the first 10 rounds with 180%, no easy feat when you're drafting second every round.  In total they spent $11.9 million which placed them second behind the Washington Nationals and young phenom, Bryce Harper.  Lost in all of the signings, was 6th round pick Zack Von Rosenberg who signed in the 2009 MLB draft.  His 1.2 million dollar signing bonus was way over the slotted amount for a 6th round pick.  However, he posses many tools to be a solid pitcher in the majors and ranks as a Top 10 prospect on Piratesprospects.com.    

Is this a risky investment?  Absolutely.  No one knows how any of these players will pan out in the future.  The only draft pick that has made noise since Bob Nutting's takeover, has been former 2nd overall pick Pedro Alvarez who was taken in the 2008 draft.  Yet this is the way the Pirates must spend in order to be a competitive team.  They have neither the money nor the influence to sign a proven stud like Albert Pujols.  Their payroll is low and will probably be lower after the trade deadline this year.  But the money saved will (hopefully) be used to sign Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, etc.  Bob is committed to winning and unlike his predecessors, he is willing to shell out the money to see a positive return.  He's invested too much money in these players to trade them before they become stars, although holding onto every player is unrealistic in a small market (see Brewers-Prince Fielder after this year).  Nevertheless, the Pirates are closer to finding their way back to winning baseball in what feels like an eternity.  In two years, the 5 year rebuilding plan will be complete and the team will be competitive once again.