Pittsburgh Penguins "All in" with Sidney Crosby

When noon strikes tomorrow, Sidney Crosby will sign a 12 year, $104.4 million deal to remain a Pittsburgh Penguin for the rest of his career.  Staying true to his superstitious nature, Crosby's cap hit will remain $8.7 million despite the player cap increasing by $4 million since Crosby signed his first contract extension in 2007.

In a world shared by Latrell Sprewell and his ridiculous "I have to feed my family" statement in response to turning down a $20 million offer, Crosby's decision to stay with the Penguins for the same amount of money (theoretically a pay cut) is admirable.  Obviously, $104.4 million won't force Sid into collecting welfare, however, by leaving $60 million on the table, Crosby has given significant financial flexibility to the Penguins in hopes of acquiring players to win another Stanley Cup. Everything you've heard about Sidney Crosby making winning a top priority is now indisputably confirmed. 

For the Pittsburgh Penguins, the deal clearly shows commitment to the world's best hockey talent.  Despite Crosby's history of concussions, the Penguins are prepared to win and lose with 87 as their captain for the next dozen years.  Furthermore, with the contract not being insured, the Penguins have invested all hope on Sidney Crosby.  If the Penguins win the Stanley Cup, Sidney Crosby will be the first one to lift it.  If Crosby's career ends premature, the Penguins will lose $104.4 million.  Even for a franchise that is playing in a new arena, with an astronomical amount of revenue, that's a big hit to take.

Similar deals have failed to work out for other clubs.  Rick DiPietro is the biggest example of what can go wrong with heavily investing in one player.  DiPietro signed a 15 year contract in 2006 and, since then, has played in only 172 of 492 games due to numerous injuries.  

The Washington Capitals are facing a different problem with their captain.  In 2008, Ovechkin signed a 13 year, $124 million contract, the highest in NHL history.  After scoring 65 goals and tallying 112 points in 2007, Ovechkin's production has fallen off dramatically.  In 2011, he finished with a career low 65 points and saw limited ice time in the closing minutes of a close game.  I.E. the Capitals were trying to find ways to win without their captain and highest paid employee.

The Pittsburgh Penguins see a great deal with Sidney Crosby.  The dollar figure is a bargain compared to what a player of his talent typically commands.  In return, Crosby has to continue to produce as everyone hopes the concussion issues have subsided. 

The only person possibly hurt by this -other than the 29 other teams- is Evgeni Malkin; the current individual king of the hockey world.  Malkin signed the same contract as Sidney Crosby in 2009.  However, it would not be absurd for Malkin to command more money due to his brilliant play this past season.  It certainly helps that Pat Brisson (Crosby's agent) and J.P. Barry (Malkin's agent) are co-founders of the Creative Artists Agency.  

The Penguins will certainly look for a proper deal for Evgeni Malkin around this time next year.  Will Malkin make more than Crosby?  Will he ask for top dollar, forcing the Penguins to move him in a similar fashion to Jordan Staal?  For now, it is impossible to tell.  

One thing is certain: Sidney Crosby is not going anywhere.

 

Shero Can't Afford to Miss in Free Agency

Out of everyone in attendance at Consol Energy Center last Friday, Ray Shero became the biggest winner at the draft.

Even after Jordan Staal appeared to whittle his trade value down to nearly nothing, Shero was still able to strike a deal with Hurricanes' GM, Jim Rutherford, sending Staal to Carolina for a pick, a prospect and Brandon Sutter.  

Shero wasn't done.

Later in the night, he traded Zbynek Michalek back to the Phoenix Coyotes for a couple of prospects.  The move was seen as more of a salary dump, clearing up $4 million in cap space.  By the end of the first round, the Penguins reduced their payroll to roughly $55 million, clearing $15 million in cap space with the assumption that the salary cap will reach $70 million this upcoming season.

With $15 million to spend, the Penguins are now in prime position to pursue elite talent in free agency.  Zach Parise and Ryan Suter are the top free agents this summer and both are rumored to be of high interest to the Penguins.  

Parise is a friend of Sidney Crosby and many believe the Penguins are the favorite to sign him when free agency opens up on July 1st.  Adding a 30+ goal scorer to Sidney Crosby's line would make last year's highest scoring team even more dangerous.  

On the other hand, Parise can be seen as more of a luxury than a need.  After all, the Penguins were bounced in the first round of the playoffs because of shoddy play on defense.  Ryan Suter would certainly upgrade the defensive core of the Penguins.  Suter, paired with Shea Weber in Nashville, became part of one of the top shutdown defensive pairings in the league.  Not only is Suter sound defensively, he also possesses excellent offensive skills.  Last season, he finished with a career high 46 points.

While signing both players is unlikely, the Penguins still have plenty of other options to upgrade both sides of their team.  Players like Bryan Allen or Filip Kuba could provide a big body on defense while Ray Whitney or Shane Doan could provide a scoring touch with a veteran presence.  

Regardless of how Ray Shero decides to attack this free agency pool, he cannot afford to miss.  With $15 million and only a couple of roster spots to fill -Pittsburgh has 18 players signed- the Penguins have a golden opportunity to add enough talent to potentially become a dynastic team. But they need to make the right moves.  

While Ray Shero has been extremely successful with trades, his free agent signings have left a lot to be desired.  In the summer of 2008, the Penguins were unable to retain Marian Hossa after trading for him in the previous season.  To be fair, Shero was successful in signing Matt Cooke and Ruslan Fedotenko who became role players during the 2009 Stanley Cup run. 

In 2010, the Penguins traded for Dan Hamhuis's rights only to see him sign with Vancouver on the first day.  Pittsburgh attempted to patch holes by signing Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek.  While both players had a solid first season with the Penguins, by the end of their second season they were appropriately named cap-casualties.  

The Pittsburgh Penguins need to nail this year's free agency period.  Ray Shero did a tremendous job moving players at the draft.  He not only got a fair return for Jordan Staal, but he freed up a ton of cap space to get another big name that can hopefully put the Penguins over the top.  If Shero lets Suter or Parise slip through his fingers the way others have, the Penguins' quest for the cup will become that much more difficult in the coming seasons. 

Ray Shero Faces Arduous Offseason

After the Penguins fell embarrassingly to the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round of the 2012 playoffs, Ray Shero stated that changes would be made to the team in the offseason.  This news was rather unsurprising considering the Penguins severely underachieved with a relatively healthy roster; a roster proclaimed by many across North America to be the Stanley Cup favorite by a wide margin.

Now, due to the disappointment of 2012, coupled with the previous two seasons in which the Penguins failed to get out of the second round, Ray Shero faces an offseason that could make or break his future with the Pittsburgh Penguins.  As general manager, Ray Shero's job rests solely on his ability to improve the team and bring them another Stanley Cup.  For Pittsburgh, it means improving a rather soft defense while attempting to keep all the superstars on the roster past the 2013 season and also drafting future stars to create a steady pipeline of prospects.

To further analyze Shero's monumental summer, let's break this down into three parts:

Draft

Other than Jordan Staal in the 2006 draft, Shero hasn't selected any impact players.  Simon Despres (2009) will finally get a chance to start in the NHL this season, and Joe Morrow (2011) looks to have an exciting future in the NHL, but that's about it.  This year doesn't help with the 2012 draft class less than excitable once you get past the first 5-10 picks.  Of the three major parts, this department is of the least importance considering the Penguins' stars are still incredibly young.

The NHL draft is generally a crapshoot, especially when selecting in the bottom half of the draft.  As fans or media members, we really have no idea who will work out in the future.  But the scouts should have at least an idea.  So should the general manager.

Player Management


Jordan Staal and Sidney Crosby will be free agents at the end of the 2012-2013 season unless Shero is able to re-sign them beforehand.  Rumors have already been swirling that Sidney Crosby is ready to sign a ten year deal as soon as he is eligible.  Jordan Staal, on the other hand, is an enigma.

Staal is coming off a team leading six goal performance in six games against the Flyers in the Eastern Quarterfinals.  Despite missing 20 regular season games, Staal finished with a career high 50 points, notching 25 goals and 25 assists.  On a team that features two other centers that possess talent unmatched by the world, Staal is still a priority for Shero to re-sign.  On Tuesday, he told the media that he was not listening to trade offers and was more focused on trying to get a deal in place to keep Staal in Pittsburgh for a long time.

Unfortunately, Shero may have to listen to offers from other teams.  Jordan Staal could help a lot of teams as their top center and it has already been rumored that Staal has expressed an interest in having a bigger role on a team where he is not overshadowed by elite stars.

On the open market, Staal could probably command a salary of 7-8 million a year and a team like the Maple Leafs would gladly pay.  Is he worth that much?  It depends on the salary cap and the new CBA.  And therein lies the problem: Shero has no idea what the new CBA is going to allow and there is no way of knowing what the 2012-2013 salary cap will stand at this time.

Staal will be Shero's biggest challenge this offseason.  He has several options to choose from, each equally difficult.  The only unacceptable option is to let Staal go to free agency at the end of next season.  There would simply be no excuse to let go of a then 24 year old superstar without a hefty return.

Paul Martin is another question mark.  Martin had a disastrous 2011-2012 campaign and saw Simon Despres perform admirably in his stead during the playoffs.  With three years remaining on his contract, Martin is now a $15 million eyesore and Shero may be looking to dump him before heading into next season.  If the Penguins hope to improve their defense, trading Martin would be a step in the right direction.

Free Agency


The financial flexibility of the Penguins depends on how Shero handles the issues previously listed.  If the Penguins can rid themselves of Paul Martin and his hefty contract, their options will open up; a winger, a stay at home defenseman, or maybe more cash to throw at Staal and Crosby.  And yet, again, this is all based on the salary cap and new CBA.

Since we're still in June, it is far too early to speculate on which free agents could potentially be future Penguins.  However, the list of Penguins that are soon to be free agents is much more manageable.

As a restricted free agent, Matt Niskanen will be the Penguins' top priority while UFA's Steve Sullivan, Arron Asham, Richard Park, Steve MacIntyre, and Brent Johnson may be gone.  MacIntyre had no value with the Penguins, spending most of his time in Wilkes-Baare, Asham embarrassed the franchise for his barbaric actions in Game 3, Richard Park was a regular healthy scratch, and Brent Johnson was just replaced by Tomas Vokoun.  Steve Sullivan had the best season out of this group.  However, given  how injury prone he has been over the years, it may not be in Pittsburgh's best interest to re-sign the soon-to-be 38 year old winger.

The next three months for Ray Shero will need to be his best.  He cannot afford to take the Penguins, as they are presently constructed, into the next season and expect a better result.  His decisions will not only determine the fate of the 2012-2013 Penguins, but also the organization's future.  The motto over the last few years has been "In Shero we trust".  As doubt starts to creep into the minds of Penguins' fans, can Shero reinforce the thought that this is the best team in hockey?

Time for the Pirates to Free Rudy Owens

After Brad Lincoln's second consecutive poor start on Tuesday against the Orioles, Clint Hurdle was asked if Lincoln's job as a spot starter was up for grabs.

"We've got him scheduled to pitch the last game in Cleveland but we need him to pitch better." (Washington Post)

Why?

Why is Lincoln scheduled to pitch against the Cleveland Indians on Sunday?  Especially when the organization boasts 7-8 legitimate starters from Pittsburgh to AAA Indianapolis.  Why does Clint Hurdle enjoy banging his head against the wall expecting a different result?

As a starter this season, Lincoln is 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA.  In his two previous starters, Lincoln failed to pitch five full innings while giving up nine combined runs in that span.  In 13 relief appearances, Lincoln is 2-0 with a 0.45 ERA.

The Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde performances are linked to the strengths and weaknesses Lincoln possesses as a pitcher.  Brad Lincoln is a two pitch-pitcher.  He throws a mid-90s fastball and a sharp breaking ball.  As a reliever, that works well since relievers rarely see the same hitter twice in the same game.  However, a starter with only two pitches is a disaster waiting to happen.  Imagine Mariano Rivera starting for the Yankees instead of closing; do you think his cutter would get bashed around by the 3rd or 4th inning?  With Jeff Karstens recovering and Charlie Morton out for the season with Tommy John surgery, it is time for the Pirates to promote a starter from AAA.

It is time to free Rudy Owens.

After a disappointing 2011 season in AAA, Owens has been lights out for the Indianapolis Indians this season, posting a 5-2 record with a 2.29 ERA.  The 2010 22nd round draft pick out of Chandler-Gilbert Community College has gone at least six innings in each start this season and has yet to allow more than three runs in any of them.

While Owens lacks experience at the big league level -his next start for the Pirates will be his first- he at least has the right frame of mind and the physical endurance to throw six solid innings.  Adding him into the rotation while moving Lincoln back into the bullpen would be the most logical decision.  Owens may not post video game numbers like Zach Duke did his rookie season, but he would be an improvement over Lincoln who would also benefit by pitching in relief.

Make the call Neal Huntington and Clint Hurdle.  Free Rudy Owens from AAA and, in the same process, free Brad Lincoln from the rotation.

Vokoun a Perfect Fit for Penguins

At the end of the 2012 NHL playoffs, the Penguins finished 7th out of 16 in total goals despite playing just six games.  They trailed the Washington Capitals's total by three goals despite the fact that Washington played eight more games.  No, goals were not the problem for the Pittsburgh Penguins, this time.  

Goaltending and defense, on the other hand, were major problems. 

The Penguins lacked physical defensemen to play the hook-and-grab style of defense that had overtaken the league through the middle of the regular season.  In the same vein, the defense looked lost for most of the series against Philadelphia -and during the season- placing Marc-Andre Fleury on an island.  

That is not to say Marc-Andre Fleury gets a free pass from this team's meltdown two months ago.  Fleury struggled mightily down the final stretch and when the Penguins needed him the most (Game six), he was horrible, allowing the Flyers to score the "next goal" to forever put the Penguins out of reach.  

Fleury's below average performances spanning the last three playoffs have made fans forget about his brilliant performance in the 2009 Stanley Cup run.  Even more interesting, all three of those premature playoff runs ended in different ways.

In 2010, the Penguins collapsed at home in Game seven against the Montreal Canadiens.  Marc-Andre Fleury was pulled after allowing nine goals on thirteen shots en route to a 5-2 loss.  The following season, without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins fell in seven games to the Tampa Bay Lightning.  After going up 3-1 in the series, the Penguins dropped three straight, being outscored 13-4 in that span.

Fleury allowed nine of those thirteen goals.

This year was a complete collapse and Ray Shero may have found a player to help remedy one of the Penguins' biggest problems.

Shero traded for Tomas Vokoun last week and then immediately signed him to a two year, $4 million deal.  Vokoun, who turns 36 in July, will begin his 16th NHL season with his fifth different team.  This time, he will be the backup; something he hasn't experienced since he backed up Mike Dunham in Nashville 12 years ago.  

Vokoun is a perfect fit for the Pittsburgh Penguins.  His veteran presence will affect Marc-Andre Fleury as it did with Braden Holtby in Washington this past season.  While Vokoun's age will limit him from being the 60 game starter he used to be, his talent will still give the Penguins 25-30 starts allowing Fleury to rest during the regular season.  

Rest was something Fleury apparently lacked going into the playoffs.  Brent Johnson was horrible last season, going 6-7-2 with a .883 save percentage, forcing Bylsma to start Marc-Andre Fleury as the Penguins chased the top seed in the Eastern Conference.  With Vokoun backing up, it would be a shock to see Fleury start 67 games like he did in 2011-2012.

If Fleury continues to struggle in the playoffs, Vokoun will give the Penguins at least a fighting chance to win.  If the Penguins had Vokoun in April, they probably would've replaced Fleury a lot earlier in the Philadelphia series.  

The Penguins still have a few more steps to improve their team, either by making adjustments to their system or upgrading their defensive unit.  Nevertheless, Vokoun will still be a vital piece to Pittsburgh's success if they hope to raise the cup in 2013.

For Once, Pirates Have Leverage Over Boras

In 2008, the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Pedro Alvarez with the second pick in the MLB Entry Draft.  The pick was monumental for the Pirates who were finally starting to take players based on skill instead of signability.  Standing in their way was Scott Boras, Alvarez's agent, who was -and still is- notorious for getting teams to break the bank at the signing deadline.

It didn't take long for the Pirates to figure out why Boras was renowned for being a tough negotiator.  After reporting that a deal was in place at the signing deadline, Boras claimed that the Pirates did not officially consummate the contract until 12:01 August 16th, two minutes after the deadline.  The MLBPA filed a grievance shortly thereafter, forcing Alvarez on the restricted list.  The Pirates would eventually get a deal done with Pedro, but at a $6 million dollar major league contract.

Last season, the Pirates had to negotiate with Boras on their first two draft picks.  Both Gerrit Cole and Josh Bell had Boras as their "advisor".  The result: Cole signed an $8 million minor league contract and Bell signed for $5 million, the highest figure for a second round draft pick.

This year, the Pirates selected another Scott Boras client, Mark Appel.

Same result?  Don't count on it.

Appel was a consensus top-2 pick heading into the 2012 draft.  Jim Callis had Appel as the top pick in all four of his mock drafts, citing Appel's ability as well as his roots to Houston.  Instead, Appel dropped to the Pirates at number eight with all signs pointing to Boras as the main reason.

As much as small-market fans hate the new draft spending rules, in this particular instance it may work out for the Pirates.  Boras is going to do everything in his power to get Appel top dollar.  After all, he was able to get Mark Teixeira $9.5 million despite being the fifth pick in the 2001 draft.

This time around, Boras may be lucky if his client gets half that much money.  First overall pick, Carlos Correa, his slotted at $7.2 million while Appel's value is slotted at $2.9 million.  The Pirates will probably offer Appel a contract around $4 million which will leave about $2.5 million to sign their next 10 picks.

Boras may think that offer is ridiculous, but before he jumps the gun, he needs to consider the facts.  Mark Appel was the 8th overall pick in one of the weakest draft classes over the last 25 years.  He could opt to go back to Stanford for his senior season.  However, the chances of Appel raising his stock at Stanford are much smaller than a dip in performance or injury.  A $4 million deal may be as good as it gets until Appel reaches free agency 5-6 years from now.

The Pirates have very little to lose in this situation.  Appel is a good pitcher, with the upside to be a frontline starter.  But he's not the second coming of Walter Johnson.  Neal Huntington admitted, Monday night, that Appel was not quite as advanced as Gerrit Cole was at this time last year.  And with Appel's slow, methodical delivery, coupled with a fastball that lacks movement, it will probably take some time for him to move through the system.

If Pittsburgh signs Appel, they will add another talented front-line starter to an organization already deep with pitching.  If the Pirates are unable to sign Appel, they will receive the ninth overall pick next year in what should be a much deeper draft class.  Either way, it appears the Pirates are in a win-win situation.

Your move, Boras.

The 2012 MLB Draft and the Pirates

Is it just me, or did this year's MLB entry-level draft sneak up on everyone?  Not that it should be a huge surprise considering this has been regarded as one of the weakest draft classes in baseball history.  While time will only tell who panned out, the fact that there's a 5'9 pitcher from lowly Duke University in the top 15 rankings is a sign.  If you're looking for a stacked draft class, watch last year's draft because this is certainly not the year.  

This is not to say that this draft class is a complete waste of time, it just doesn't contain the type of talent we've grown accustomed to over the last 10 years.  While the consensus top talent, Byron Buxton, projects to be an All-Star player, he is nowhere near the talent of a Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the eighth selection, which is a good thing since expert rankings show a clear-cut top 8 players.  Of those 8, Byron Buxton, Mark Appel, Mike Zunino, Albert Almora, Kyle Zimmer and Kevin Gausman are almost guaranteed to be gone before the Pirates are on the clock.

Who will the Pirates select?  This year has been about as unpredictable as any.  Baseball America's latest mock draft shows the Mariners selecting Zunino at number 3.  However, over the last few weeks, Puerto Rican shortstop, Carlos Correa, has shot up the boards and could go as high as number 2 to the Twins.

That would be disappointing for Pirates' fans.  Correa is extremely athletic and projects to play either shortstop or third base, drawing comparisons to Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria.  If he somehow fell to the Pirates at number 8, it would be a no-brainer to select him.  Unfortunately, it is very unlikely that he will fall that far.

If the Pirates wanted to take a shortstop, they could select Deven Marrero from Arizona State.  Marrero is the best fielding shortstop in the Pac-12 and would provide depth at a very talent-devoid position in the organization.  Of all the shortstops in this draft, Marrero is most likely to stay at the position when he turns pro.  Yet, Marrero doesn't provide for an even bigger need: hitting.  Marrero has had a down year for ASU at the plate with a .279 average and four home runs.  At one point, mock drafts had him going to the Pirates, but now it looks as though his stock has dropped to the middle of the first round.  

Pittsburgh was originally linked to California prep pitcher, Lucas Giolito.  However, a sprained UCL ligament in his throwing elbow has dampened the hype.  With Giolito still throwing off of flat ground, it is entirely possible that one of the top pitching prospects in the draft will fall out of the first round altogether.  

But that doesn't mean the Pirates can't look at one of Lucas's teammates.  

Max Fried is a 6'4 180 pound southpaw with a 95 mph fastball and a potential plus-plus curveball.  Given the Pirates' recent draft history of selecting young, projectable, arms, Fried fits the profile immediately.  Yes, the Pirates have selected a pitcher in the first round the last two drafts, but if Fried projects to be a better player than any of the positional players left on the board, you have to go with Fried.  Plus, another solid pitching prospect opens the door for a possible trade down the road to acquire a major league-ready bat.   

In my opinion, the Pirates should select Fried unless any of the preceding teams reach for a player (like high school outfielder Courtney Hawkins) and the Pirates have a shot at taking Correa, Zunino, etc.  Of course, they could also go the Tony Sanchez route and reach for a player to save money.  A power bat such as Joey Gallo or Richie Shaffer could be an option, but given the Pirates recent history in developing young bats, this would be a risky move.

For now, the Pirates will have to wait.  At eight, they hold the lowest pick since 2005 when they selected Andrew McCutchen 11th overall.