Reviewing the Trade Deadline

Buying at the trade deadline has become an objective for Neal Huntington in back to back seasons now.  Last year, he swung two deals bringing in Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick for cash and a few low level prospects.  Everyone knows how the season ended despite getting significant gains from Lee in particular.  

This season, the Pirates were labeled as buyers yet remained conservative throughout the final hours of the deadline.  Justin Upton, Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Shane Victorino, Juan Pierre, Hunter Pence and Zack Greinke were all on the block, but the Pirates were unable to acquire any of their services for the final push.  Instead, Huntington opted to trade for Travis Snider, Wandy Rodriguez, Gaby Sanchez, and -to a lesser degree- Chad Qualls.  

The Pirates certainly had the resources to acquire the best players on the market, with three elite pitchers and a few blue chip hitters as well.  And yet, they went with high risk high reward players at a lower cost; players retainable for 4-5 years instead of two months.  

Why?

I'll give you a hint.  It's not because the Pirates are cheap, and it's not because they think this team will fall apart like it did last year.  It's because they realize that the window of success, despite what many have argued, is only starting to open.  

The Pirates have had a very successful season so far and many of the key pieces -McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, Burnett, McDonald, Marte, Rodriguez- are all coming back next year with most of those players having contracts stretching beyond 2013.  In the minors, they have Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Justin Wilson and Jeff Locke to bolster the pitching staff within the next two years, and they have several prospects in lower levels screaming for a promotion.  Why is the window to win only open to this year?  Yes, the division is weak this year, and it will automatically get stronger when the Astros leave next season to go to the American League.  But this year's team -despite facing the toughest first 40 games of the season- battled against the best teams in baseball.  Their record is certainly not a shell based on winning against bad teams, alone.

Neal Huntington is also not an idiot when it comes to trades.  The Phillies wanted Brad Lincoln for Shane Victorino, a free agent at the end of this season where he is hitting a meek .261 with nine home runs.  The Indians wanted Starling Marte for Shin Soo Choo, a 30 year old who has only played in 100+ games in two of his seven major league seasons.  Huntington even voiced after the deadline on 93.7 the Fan that some of the asking prices were so high for players like Victorino and Pence, that he would have been foolish to accept a deal.  If you refuse to believe him, ask the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals why they made very little noise at the deadline despite having strong ties to every major player on the market.

To go further with that point, would one player make the difference between winning and losing this division?  The Cincinnati Reds are a better team and will probably win the division.  That means, to make the playoffs, the Pirates will have to go in as a wild card where they will most likely compete against the Dodgers or Giants.  That means the Pirates would likely face Matt Cain or Clayton Kershaw in the postseason.  Would the addition of a .270 hitter like Hunter Pence put the Pirates in a position to take that game, alone?  Doubtful.  Obviously, these are hypotheticals, but they are worth exploring when you consider the sensitivity in packaging a bunch of top prospects for one season.

Despite their success, the Pirates are still in a small market.  Regardless of ticket sales, revenue sharing, or Bob Nutting winning the Powerball, the Pirates will always have a small base to generate TV revenue.  When your TV market is smaller than Portland, Oregon, you miss out on the multi-billion dollar TV deals that make teams like LA, New York, and Texas so successful.  The process to construct this year's winning team had to include a well thought-out plan with minimal errors.  Now that the team is successful, the last thing the Pirates needed to do was make a bunch of irrational trades by shipping high-priced prospects out for players who are easily recognizable on a baseball card.  Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino and Justin Upton are all big names with All-Star appearances and playoff experience, but this season, they have all been disappointments with risks and prices high enough to tear down what the Pirates have spent the last five years building.  

The moves Huntington made were good moves, for the most part.  Travis Snider has a lot of talent and could project to be a corner outfielder with some pop.  The risk of him becoming another Jeff Clement is worth worrying about since he has been bounced between the big leagues and AAA for the last four seasons.  However, the price for his potential is worth taking a minor gamble on.  Brad Lincoln has been excellent this season but, he is also 27 years old and, at best, projects to be a closer down the road.  As I've stated before, relief pitchers are a dime a dozen in baseball and with the depth of relievers in AAA, the Pirates would be foolish to keep a 7th inning reliever when they have the opportunity to gain a power bat in the outfield.  

Gaby Sanchez is a player the Pirates are hoping to resurrect with a change of scenery.  Sanchez has hit 19 home runs in back to back seasons and was an All-Star last year.  He is a career .298 hitter against left-handed pitchers and could become a solid platoon player at first base with Garret Jones in the final months of the season.  In return, the Pirates gave the Marlins Gorkys Hernandez -a 24 year old outfielder who cannot hit major league pitching and only has one option remaining on his contract- and a bonus pick.  Does this deal make the Pirates worse?  Absolutely not.  

The Casey Mcgehee for Chad Qualls trade is insignificant, in my opinion.  Qualls has been horrific this season and I would be shocked if Hurdle used him in high leverage situations.  This move was more about clearing Casey Mcgehee off the books to make room for Sanchez.  The $250k sent to New York, in addition to Mcgehee, is hilarious given Burnett's complete game shutout and 13th win of the season. Maybe the Yankees should've asked for more.

The Pirates did not fall into the trap the now-rebuilding Milwaukee Brewers did when they mortgaged the system for CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke.  Instead, the Pirates aimed at a more successful, small-market model used by the Tampa Bay Rays.  The goal is not to pour everything into one season with the belief that the window for success if short, but rather to expand the window to 2012 and beyond.  Did these moves hurt the team?  Not really.  Did they significantly improve the team?  Only time will tell.  The Pirates are hoping to see future success from Sanchez and Snider, rather than assuming success from a proven All-Star.  If they fail, the Pirates have sacrificed nothing to keep them out of the hunt for 2012 and the future.  If they work out, the team becomes even stronger and the window of success widens even further.

Pirates' International Pool Growing

Starling Marte crushed the first pitch he saw in a major league uniform, sending the ball off the train tracks in left-center field at Minute Maid Park for his first career home run.  As a Pirates fan, the drama of seeing your top hitting prospect contributing to a winning team on the first pitch of his career was magical.

And yet, for the organization, Marte's home run symbolized so much more.

For the Pirates, the home run symbolized the beginning of what hopefully will be a strong Latin-American pool of talent in the future.  Marte has the potential to become Pittsburgh's biggest home-grown, latin star since Aramis Ramirez over ten years ago.  Compound the five million dollar Dominican Academy that opened in 2009 with the aggressive international signings over the last four years, and the Pirates look like an organization loaded with potential impact players.

Those efforts over the last four years have just now started to bear fruit for the Pirates.  The low-A affiliate, West Virginia Power, boasts two hitters in the top five in batting average in the South Atlantic League; both players signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2009.  Those players are shortstop Alen Hanson and outfielder Gregory Polanco.

Hanson showed a lot of potential when he hit .324 in the DSL two years ago, however, his stock has really taken off this season.  In his first full season playing in the US, Hanson is batting .319/.382/.556 with 15 home runs and 27 stolen bases.  His 34 errors seem to leave considerable doubt that he'll stay stick at shortstop, but his hitting shows a lot of promise.

Meanwhile, Gregory Polanco has used his time in West Virginia to be a breakout prospect, batting .324/.389/.517 with 13 home runs and 39 stolen bases.  Standing 6'4 170 pounds, Polanco certainly has room to fill out and become a potential power hitter at a corner outfield spot.

Then there's Luis Heredia, the 17 year old $2.6 million investment that is currently dominating college draftees for the State College Spikes.  Heredia is 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.  His 7 walks in 34 innings are especially impressive given how young he is.

Hanson, Polanco and Heredia all have the ultimate goal of reaching the major leagues and with Starling Marte's arrival to Pittsburgh, they all have someone to look to as a reference.  At the same time, these aren't the only international signees with the potential to play in Pittsburgh as the list of prospects goes far deeper.  Harold Ramirez, last year's $1 million signee, is off to a fast start in the GCL. The list of prospects is expected to grow as the Pirates signed top-20 international prospect Julio de la Cruz last month.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are finally tapping into a market of young players that was previously overlooked by the organization.  Ironically, it will be the previous owner's $85,000 player, Starling Marte, that jump starts what hopefully will be a long tenure of international success in Pittsburgh.

If the Top Priority is to Win, the Pirates Need to Promote Starling Marte

I know, it seems rather odd to ask if the Pirates are truly focused on winning when they are ten games over .500 in the middle of July.  In fact, saying the "Pirates" aren't focused on winning is using too broad a brush to paint out the lackadaisical approach to improving this team.  

No, not on the trade front since Neal Huntington is probably spending most of his time on his cell phone looking for deals, but rather, within the system he touts so highly.  

Starling Marte is sitting in AAA batting .291/.353/.510 with 11 home runs, 58 RBI's, and 18 stolen bases.  While his 82 strikeouts are still more than what management would like to see, the front office has outwardly expressed Marte's improvement in pitch recognition, a must-learn for all aspiring MLB hitters.

The time to promote Starling Marte was three weeks ago, but since he's still in AAA and the Pirates still only have one Major League caliber outfielder, let's say NOW is the time to promote Starling Marte.  

Josh Harrison is not an outfielder. 

Drew Sutton is not an outfielder. 

Alex Presley is not a starting outfielder.

And yet, a perfectly good outfielder who has a better defensive skill set than Andrew McCutchen is sitting in AAA.  Why?  To learn right field?  If this is a defense mechanism in response to his lapses in spring training, then it's a poor one.  The ballparks in Florida are extremely windy in the month of March, turning the most routine fly ball into an adventure.  

Marte could track down a fly ball with his eyes closed better than Drew Sutton or Josh Harrison playing in the outfield.  The miscues by Harrison on Monday night arguably led to a win for the Colorado Rockies.  Last night, Sutton misplayed a ball leading to a run, while Alex Presley dropped a fly ball allowing the Rockies to strike first.

Where is the holdup? 

Some believe the Pirates are holding Marte to test how he reacts to not being promoted when it seems he should.  That strategy has been used countless times by Pirates' scouting and development director, Kyle Stark.  It's a good idea when you are trying to groom a star player on a mediocre team, however, when you have a team pushing for a playoff spot -their first in 20 years- you put the best nine players you have available.  Starting a utility infielder in right field is an insult to the players and fans who are clamoring for baseball in October.

The Pirates already lost one game from bad defense in the outfield this week. How many more games do they have to lose before they make the call?  If the Pirates  are truly looking to improve their team, their first move should be to call up Starling Marte.  He's ready and he won't cost you a dime.

Mark Appel Not Signing is Good for Pirates

Whether it was a financial issue, a slight against the Pirates, or the draw of graduating from an elite university with a degree, Mark Appel has decided to go back to Standford and not sign with the Pirates.
With this decision, it now makes sense as to why the first seven teams in the draft passed on Appel.  Despite receiving a first overall projection, Appel's stock fell dramatically and he ended up with the Pirates at number eight.

His reaction?  Bland and somewhat cold.  The statement Appel released made no mention of his excitement to be part of a major league organization, much less the team who selected him.  Most people, including me, rolled their eyes at the statement, believing this was a negotiating move by Scott Boras.

In the end, however, Appel really didn't want to be here.

Minutes after the signing deadline on Friday, Neal Huntington released a statement:

"We were unable to reach an agreement with first round selection Mark Appel and bring him into our already strong organization. Our final offer exceeded the available bonus pool money and was essentially up to the last dollar we could offer prior to falling into the second tier penalty which would have resulted in the loss of a first round draft selection.While, as we have shown in past years, we are willing to be aggressive with our financial offer, we simply did not feel it was in the best interest of the organization to forfeit our first round selection in the 2013 amateur draft." -Huntington (rumbunter.com)

A stellar move, to say the least, by Huntington. Appel had a solid junior season at Standford, but he is not a "can't miss" talent. Jameson Taillon, Luis Heredia and Gerrit Cole are all head and shoulders above Appel, in my opinion.  In fact, you could make a case that the Pirates dodged a bullet with this player.  

I'll admit, when the Pirates first selected Mark Appel, I was excited.  However, the more I read, and the more video I saw of him, the less attractive he became as an elite arm.  By the time the Pirates were in their final week of negotiations, I was almost hoping Appel wouldn't sign. 

First of all, throw out the numbers.  I don't care if Appel was facing the toughest conference in the nation, there are still college kids in each lineup that are planning life without baseball.  You have to look at the individual and ignore the results because professional players won't miss on pitches college kids are missing.  

This past April, Kyle Boddy did a breakdown of Appel's biomechanics during his start against Washington.  Boddy concluded that while Appel's mechanics didn't throw up any major red flags, they were far from perfect.  

Appel has a tendency to over stride which makes the front leg deny the upper body from getting full extension through the pitch.  The result means a lot of pitches up in the zone.  It also eliminates the downward plane Appel could use from his 6'5 frame and forces his back leg to drag more than usual.  I.E. he is slowing himself down.  

Despite having the capability to throw a 96-98 mph fastball, Appel has had to slow it down to 92-94 to throw strikes.  Also, you have to consider that his four seam fastball shows little movement.  When you compare that to Gerrit Cole -who throws 100 on a regular basis with some boring action on the fastball- it is easy to see who has the higher ceiling.  

Another question is his durability.  While Appel is 6'5, he is 200 pounds, giving up 25 pounds to Gerrit Cole who is one inch shorter.  He appeared to have a healthy season at Stanford this year, however, he still threw 130 innings in 16 starts including a 149 pitch game against Oregon.  When you consider his breaking pitch is the slider -more violent on the arm than the curveball- there has to be some worry about how he will hold up for a full season his senior year.  

Appel will be going back to Stanford for a number of reasons, but if money is one of them, he made the wrong decision.  There is no way he gets selected higher than 8th next June.  The risk of injury and repeated success are too high to think otherwise.  

The Pirates weren't able to sign one of the top pitchers in this year's draft class.  But they gained the ninth overall pick for next year which should be a slightly better class overall.  Signing Appel would've given them another talented arm in the system, but losing his rights isn't as big of a deal as people might think.  His mechanics and heavy workload at Stanford are big enough risks that it may end up working out for the better in Pittsburgh.  

A Winger for Sid

The Pittsburgh Penguins missed out on the Zach Parise sweepstakes and, after waiting four days for him to make a decision, missed out on other wingers such as PA Parenteau and Ray Whitney.  After ten days of free agency, the Penguins' best remaining options are Alexander Semin; a player with immense talent and equal baggage, or Shane Doan who is approaching retirement.

That means the Penguins will probably look internally, once again, to find a winger for Sidney Crosby. In the Penguins' first day of development camp, Dan Bylsma talked about finding a top six winger to play on Sidney Crosby's line:

"You see the possibility of seeing younger players in the organization get a chance to play as well, whether it's Eric Tangradi in a top-6 role or Beau Bennett getting a chance to play there in exhibition and training camp or Tyler Kennedy." -Dan Bylsma, Penguins.com 

Tyler Kennedy is the early favorite to fill that role as a top-6 winger.  Two seasons ago, Kennedy scored 21 goals in 80 regular season games while Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were on the shelf.  Last season, Kennedy scored 11 goals despite missing 22 games with a concussion.  In the final year of his contract, Kennedy will look to put together a bounce-back season but is he really anything more than a third line winger?  

Beau Bennett, the Penguins 2010 first round selection, signed an entry-level contract this past April, but still doesn't have any professional hockey experience.  The Penguins also can't draw any conclusions from Bennett's experience at the University of Denver where he tallied just 13 points in 10 games during an injury-filled sophomore season.  Even if Bennett stars during development camp, the Penguins will probably send him to Wilkes-Baare for seasoning.

That leaves Eric Tangradi.

In 40 career games, Tangradi has one goal and four assists.  When Ray Shero traded Ryan Whitney to the Anaheim Ducks, he acquired Chris Kunitz as a top six winger to play with Crosby.  Tangradi was brought over as a possible future top-line winger, drawing comparisons to a young Kevin Stevens.  Now, Tangradi seems like an afterthought.  In two abbreviated seasons, he hasn't shown the ability to play higher than the fourth line.  To have a shot on Crosby's line, Tangradi will need to do more than just show his toughness, he'll need to score.

The Penguins need a winger to play with Sidney Crosby.  As it stands, their best bet is Tyler Kennedy and that is not very encouraging for a team that hopes to raise Lord Stanley next June.  It may take until the trade deadline in February to find someone, but the Penguins need to make a move, one way or another.  

Pirates Poised to Strike Thanks to Easy Schedule

Heading into this season, the greatest challenge for the Pittsburgh Pirates appeared to be surviving their first forty games.  When the schedule was released, the Pirates -on paper- were believed to have the toughest first third of the season.  On the outset, it seemed unfair to have the least successful sports franchise over the last two decades start the season against NL contenders such as San Fransisco, Cincinnati, Los Angeles, Washington, Philadelphia, and St. Louis.

As predicted, the Pirates stumbled out of the gate going 12-16 in their first 28 games.  The pitching was excellent while the hitting was bad at a historic level.  Every night the offense tried to bleed runs out of a stone hoping to give their pitchers just enough support to squeak out a win.  There was a lot of frustration over the level of underachievement by Pedro Alvarez, Casey Mcgehee, Clint Barmes, Jose Tabata, Rod Barajas, and Garrett Jones.  On many nights, the offense weren't able to produce enough. 

And yet, the Pirates were able to stay around .500, winning series against the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros.  During their first forty games, the Pirates had plenty of chances to collapse; losing 2 out of 3 against the Cardinals, then losing the following series against the Cincinnati Reds.  That type of losing stretch would normally sink the Pirates' season, but instead, they held on.

The Pirates entered June with what looked to be their toughest stretch of the season, playing 18 of 27 games on the road with three series against teams leading their respective divisions at the time.  Most fans, including me, expected a 12-15 record in June.  The Pirates, however, put forth their best effort, going 17-10 winning 8 of 9 series in the process.  

The success carried over in July where the Pirates started this month with a 4-1 record, including their first four game series sweep over Houston since 1979.  After fighting through the first three months of the season, facing Cy Young pitcher after Cy Young pitcher, road series after road series, the Pirates are now in a position to strike the NL and make a possible run at the playoffs.  

Yes, I said playoffs, Mr. Mora.

After a three game home series against the San Francisco Giants, the Pirates will not face a winning team until August 3rd against the Reds.  Between now and August 3rd, the Pirates have 13 games against teams that are at least 15 games under .500 including another four game series against the Houston Astros.  

The time is now for the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates.  They have a chance to extend their record to 15-20 games over 500 by the end of the month.  Playoff teams take advantage of these opportunities and with the trade deadline rapidly approaching, the Pirates have a chance to put themselves in an excellent position for a playoff spot.  

Obviously the season doesn't end in July.  But the final two months aren't nearly as tumultuous on paper, as the first three months of the season.  Last year, the Pirates collapsed due to faulty pitching, and an unbearable schedule in August.  This year, the Pirates don't have quite as many challenges in the final third of the regular season.

If there are any worries about the team looking ahead, forget about it.  While they are young, the Pirates haven't forgotten the quick collapse of their promising season last year.  Since Spring Training, the team's mantra has been "finish", a reminder to build off the successes of last season while showing the focus and determination to avoid the failures.

Ten games over .500 is exciting, winning baseball in Pittsburgh is exciting, but it pales in comparison to what this team is capable of doing, especially if they add a bat/arm at the deadline and call up an electric prospect in Starling Marte.  The league handed them a big challenge in the first half of the season and now it's time for the Pirates to take advantage of a weak second half.

Get ready Pittsburgh, the best is yet to come.